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Bruce's Commentaries / 03.10

Health Crisis: Coronavirus is now a Pandemic

The U.S. is now starting to confront a serious health crisis: coronavirus. China has been fighting this since December and appears to be bringing it under control. There are fewer reports of new coronavirus cases and deaths there. They fought this by shutting down large portions of the country with draconian measures. Many cities were quarantined and transportation was shut down. The U.S. is just starting to fight the virus and has many issues to address, but the health issues come first.
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Bruce's Commentaries / 02.10

Good News and Black Swans

USMCA and Phase 1 of the tariffs have passed, which should lead to reduced trade conflicts and tariffs. China has agreed to buy $200 billion in products from the U.S. However, $360 billion in tariffs still exist, which amounts to about a 15% tariff on many Chinese imports.
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Bruce's Commentaries / 01.10

I Think I Know But I Don’t. [Acronym: ITIKBID]

I use this saying a lot in my life, and it applies to this report. The macro outlook continues to be favorable. GDP, unemployment, housing, consumer spending, and consumer confidence all are positive. Car sales have been at 17 million for five years, the stock market is strong, and the Fed sees little risk of a recession. Plus, 57% of small businesses are experiencing revenue growth. The NFIB reports that current orders are weak, but future orders look strong.
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Bruce's Commentaries / 12.10

Favorable Outlook with Contradictions

Our economy is in its 11th year of expansion. Over 266,000 jobs were created last month, putting unemployment at 3.5%, a 50-year low. However, the number of jobs created in the three years that Trump has been in office is 13% lower -- 1 million less – than the last three years that Obama was in office. Interest rates are extremely low, as is inflation. If any economist had forecast the current economic scenario prior to 2009, they would have been laughed at, ridiculed and deemed an idiot. Well, here we are.
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Bruce's Commentaries / 11.20

Market Insights – November 2019

The economy looks better this month than it did last month. The six-week GM strike ended and did not have a big impact on the overall economy. Job growth continues to be good, except for manufacturing. 
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Bruce's Commentaries / 08.26

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – August 2019

I am focusing on the trade war because of the topic’s importance to manufacturing.
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Bruce's Commentaries / 07.26

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – July 2019

I might have to change the name of the Metals Commentary to the Trade Wars Commentary. In June, 600 large corporations, including Walmart, Costco, Target and Gap, and numerous trade associations sent a letter to President Trump requesting the removal of US tariffs on Chinese-produced goods. The group prepared an analysis that showed the trade wars are hurting the economy and would reduce the GDP, lead to a loss of more than 2 million jobs and cost the average American family $2,300 per year. 
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Bruce's Commentaries / 06.26

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – June 2019

There is a considerable amount of negative economic news out there right now. It is not negative at the same level as the Great Recession, just a softer tone to manufacturing and business. I concentrate on the indicators that most affect manufacturing. 
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Bruce's Commentaries / 05.29

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – May 2019

Political turmoil and tariff chaos continue to make headlines and cause uncertainty.
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