Expertise

Mirar hacia adelante. ¡Cuidado! “Tengo un mensaje para quienes observan o están involucrados en el enfrentamiento sobre el aumento del límite de la deuda federal de Los Estados Unidos: tengan mucho miedo. En este punto del ciclo financiero y económico, no lograr llegar a un acuerdo sería particularmente grave”, dijo Bill Dudley, expresidente del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Nueva York de 2009 a 2018.

Lookout Ahead. Look Out! “I have one message for those observing or involved in the standoff over raising the US federal debt limit: Be very afraid. At this point in the financial and economic cycle, failing to reach a deal would be particularly dire,” Bill Dudley, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President from 2009-2018.

TERMINA LA LOCURA DE MARZO. LOCURA ECONOMICA NO. El adagio es: "La Reserva Federal aprieta hasta que algo se rompe". SVB y otros bancos quebraron. Poco después, el 22 de Marzo, la Fed anunció una subida de tasas de 25 puntos.

MARCH MADNESS ENDS. ECONOMIC MADNESS DOES NOT. The adage is, “The Fed tightens until something breaks.” SVB and other banks broke. Shortly afterward on March 22, the Fed announced a 25-point rate hike. Powell stated, “Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain,”

APRENSION ECONOMICA CRECIENTE Requiere un enfoque firme en el futuro LAS PERSPECTIVAS ECONOMICAS SERAN VUCA POR MUCHO TIEMPO Mi acrónimo favorito VUCA (Volatilidad, Incertidumbre, Complejidad y Ambigüedad) resume la economía y es más fácil de explicar que mi pensamiento: "¿Qué diablos está pasando?"

Growing Economic Apprehension This requires a steadfast focus on the future THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WILL BE VUCA FOR A LONG TIME My favorite acronym VUCA — Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity — sums up the economy and is easier to explain than my thinking, “What the hell is happening?”

THE CONUNDRUM & CHANGING THE CALCULUS THE FED's CONUNDRUM How high do interest rates need to go, and how long to cool the economy and inflation while not causing a hard landing? The Fed is trying to navigate these very tricky waters.

LA FED: NO TE VA A GUSTAR LA CURA, TAMPOCO El presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, dijo recientemente en una conferencia de prensa que las condiciones del mercado laboral experimentarán un cierto debilitamiento y “Desearía que hubiera una forma completamente sin dolor de restaurar la estabilidad de precios. Simplemente no hay. Y esto es lo mejor que podemos hacer”.

THE PEOPLE: WE DON’T LIKE INFLATION THE FED: YOU ARE NOT GOING TO LIKE THE CURE, EITHER. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said at a news conference that labor market conditions will experience some softening, and “I wish there were a completely painless way to restore price stability. There isn’t. And this is the best we can do.”