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Shapiro – April 2024 Market Insights - Logo
Uncategorized / 04.11

Shapiro – April 2024 Market Insights

“Inflation is when you pay $15 for the $10 haircut that you used to get for $5 when you had hair.” - Sam Ewing Consumers are pissed off about high prices and yet consumer spending continues fueling the economic growth. Their sentiment these days is “WTH! If inflation is cooling why are my grocery bills still so high?” “These prices make no sense, and I can’t believe inflation is at only 2.5% to 3%.” “Why aren’t prices falling.” “It’s just not right.”
Uncategorized / 03.18

Shapiro -13 de Marzo de 2024 Market Insights

En mis Notas de Mercado del mes pasado, hablé de cómo la incertidumbre conduce a la sabiduría. Philip Tetlock, psicólogo de la Universidad de California en Berkeley, escribió: "Insistimos en buscar orden en secuencias aleatorias". Su argumento es que las personas que tienen una visión unificada del mundo tienen más probabilidades de estar equivocadas, y muy equivocadas. El los llama erizos.
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Shapiro – March 2024 Market Insights

In last month’s Market Insights, I discussed how uncertainty leads to wisdom. Philip Tetlock, a University of California at Berkeley psychologist, wrote "We insist on looking for order in random sequences." His argument is that people who have a unified view of the world are more likely to be wrong, and badly wrong. He calls them hedgehogs.
Uncategorized / 02.14

Shapiro – February 2024 Market Insights

At the beginning of 2023, most economists were certain that higher interest rates would slow the economy, cause unemployment to go up, create a recession and slowly bring down inflation. Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. Instead, GDP grew a very healthy 2.5%, over 2.7 million new jobs were created with unemployment at near a record low of 3.7%. The inflation rate dropped from 6.5% and based on the Feds PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures, is running at under 2% over the last 6 months
Uncategorized / 01.21

Shapiro – Enero 2024 Market Insights

¡Los expertos realmente arruinaron el pronóstico para 2023! En 2023, la mayoría de los economistas dijeron que había entre un 90 y un 100 % de certeza de habría una recesión. Se pronosticaba que las tasas de interés aumentarían y se mantendrían altas durante mucho tiempo. La inflación tardaría años en normalizarse. El mercado de valores estaba cayendo. Los salarios iban a dispararse fuera de control y el desempleo iba a aumentar hasta el 5 % o más
Uncategorized / 01.12

Shapiro – January 2024 Market Insights

The experts really blew the 2023 forecast! In 2023 most economists said a recession was 90 – 100% certain. Interest rates were forecasted to go and stay higher for a long time. Inflation was going to take years to normalize. The stock market was going down. Wages were going to spiral out of control and unemployment was going to rise to 5% and above.
Uncategorized / 12.19

Shapiro – Diciembre de 2023 Market Insights

En una conversación con una amiga, que no tiene preocupaciones financieras, me contó que dejó de ir a Starbucks porque ahora su café macchiato favorito cuesta $ 7 dólares. Algo que escuché hace mucho tiempo y que nunca olvidaré es cuando alguien dice: “Es el capital, no el dinero. Siempre es el dinero”.
Uncategorized / 12.14

Shapiro – December 2023 Market Insights

In a conversation with a friend, who has zero financial worries, she shared with me that she stopped going to Starbucks because it now costs $7 for her favorite latte macchiato. Something I heard a long time ago and will never forget is when someone says, “It’s the principal, not the money. It is always the money.”
Uncategorized / 11.21

Shapiro – Noviembre de 2023 Market Insights

"Hay dos tipos de pronosticadores: los que no saben y los que no saben que no saben". -John Kenneth Galbraith Pronóstico: "EL PRONÓSTICO DE RECESIÓN EN LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DENTRO DE UN AÑO ALCANZA EL 100%." -BLOOMBERG 17 DE OCTUBRE DE 2022 Realidad: PIB DEL TERCER TRIMESTRE ALCANZA EL 4.9 %
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