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Bruce's Commentaries- Market Insights / 11.15

Shapiro – November 2023 Market Insights

"There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know." -John Kenneth Galbraith Forecast: "FORECAST U.S. RECESSION WITHIN YEAR HITS 100%." -BLOOMBERG OCTOBER 17, 2022 Reality: THIRD QUARTER GDP HITS 4.9% Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger made that 100% recession forecast one year ago. Whoops! And they still have their jobs. Most economists were also forecasting a recession. Inflation peaked at 9.1% last June. Everyone, including me, was confident that higher interest rates would slow the economy, increase unemployment, and put us into a recession. In 2021, economists believed that inflation was "transitory."

Bruce's Commentaries- Market Insights / 10.26

Shapiro – 12 de Octubre de 2023

TRUCO O TRAVESURA DE LA ECONOMIA Actualmente, la Reserva Federal ha podido reducir sustancialmente la inflación sin provocar una recesión. La Reserva Federal se mantiene firme en mantener tasas de interés más altas por más tiempo. Su estrategia es mantener la economía creciendo, pero no demasiado rápido, y evitar una recesión. Se prevé que el PIB sea del 4 % en el tercer trimestre. También lo han logrado manteniendo el desempleo por debajo del 4 %. Durante los últimos tres meses, la inflación, medida por el índice de inflación PCE preferido de la Reserva Federal, ha sido del 2.2 % y cerca del objetivo del 2 %. Este crecimiento con menor inflación, alto nivel de empleo y una economía en crecimiento ha sido un logro sorprendente.

/ 10.12

Shapiro – October 2023 Market Insights

Trick or Treat Economy Currently the Fed has been able to substantially reduce inflation without causing a recession. The Fed is steadfast in holding on to higher interest rates for longer. Their strategy is to keep the economy growing, but not too fast, and to avoid a recession. GDP is forecasted to be 4% in Q3. They have also accomplished this while keeping unemployment below 4%. Over the last three months inflation as measured by the Feds preferred inflation index PCE, has been 2.2% and close to the 2% goal. This growth with lower inflation, high employment, and a growing economy, has been an amazing accomplishment.

/ 10.03

Shapiro – 14 de Septiembre de 2023

DESPERDICIADO EN ECONOMICVILLE Las tasas de interés son las más altas en más de 20 años. El mercado laboral sigue siendo fuerte y ajustado. El gasto del consumidor en el mes de Julio, excluyendo gasolina y automóviles, aumentó un 1 %, el doble de lo previsto por el consenso. Los salarios ajustados superaron la inflación por primera vez en dos años. La confianza del consumidor es fuerte. Las ventas de automóviles son sólidas. Todavía hay escasez de viviendas nuevas con fuerte demanda. El rastreador GDP Now de la Fed de Atlanta pronostica un crecimiento del 5.6 % para el PIB del tercer trimestre. Los mercados bursátiles están cerca de máximos históricos desde que cayeron un 22 % el año pasado. Ah, y la inflación está cayendo.

/ 09.14

Shapiro – September 2023 Market Insights

WASTED AWAY IN ECONOMICVILLE Interest rates are the highest they have been in over 20 years. The labor market remains strong and tight. Consumer spending in July, excluding gas and autos, rose by 1%, twice the consensus forecast. Adjusted wages topped inflation for the first time in two years. Consumer confidence is strong. Car sales are robust. There is still a shortage of new homes with strong demand. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker forecasts 5.6% growth for Q3 GDP. The stock markets are near record highs since falling 22% last year. Oh, and inflation is dropping.

/ 09.12

Shapiro – Agosto de 2023

EL PROBLEMA IMPLACABLE DE CHINA: EL TRASTORNO DE ESTRÉS DEPUES DE COVID Tres años de encierros obligaron a los chinos a ser literalmente prisioneros en sus propios hogares. El único momento en que podían salir era con un permiso especial y había que hacerse pruebas cada dos o tres días. La mayoría de las personas estaban sin trabajo. Si compraba una casa nueva, tenía que pagarla por adelantado y luego no podía ser construida ni entregada debido a la quiebra de la industria de la construcción. Los precios de la vivienda siguen cayendo. Zero COVID terminó en el mes de Diciembre de 2022 sin mucha planificación y muchas personas contrajeron COVID y murieron. Este es el trastorno de estrés post COVID (PCSD). Este miedo y ansiedad no cambiarán durante años.

/ 08.11

Shapiro – August 2023 Market Insights

CHINA’S RELENTLESS ISSUE: POST COVID STRESS DISORDER Three years of lockdowns forced the Chinese to be literally prisoners in their own homes. The only time they could go out was with special permission and you had to be tested every few days. Most people were out of work. If you bought a new home, you had to prepay for it and then it couldn’t be built and delivered because of the bankrupt building industry. Housing prices keep dropping. Zero Covid ended in December 2022 without much planning and many people got Covid and died. This is Post Covid Stress Disorder. This anxiety and fear will not change for years.

/ 08.11

Shapiro – de Julio de 2023 Market Insights

¿DÓNDE ESTÁ ESA RECESIÓN? Muchos economistas han estado pronosticando una recesión durante meses. La Fed comenzó a subir las tasas de interés hace 16 meses. Las tasas de interés ahora han pasado de 0 a 5 % a 5.25 %. Durante este tiempo, la inflación, medida por el IPC, ha caído de cerca del 10 % y ahora es del 3 %, un mínimo en dos años. Los economistas creen que hay un lapso de tiempo para que las tasas de interés más altas comiencen a desacelerar la economía. Ese momento es ahora, y la economía se mantiene fuerte. Los pronósticos de recesión me recuerdan a un economista, Eliot Janeway, quien falleció en 1991 y era conocido por sus numerosos pronósticos pesimistas. Se dijo que pronosticó correctamente 11 de las últimas 3 recesiones..

Bruce's Commentaries- Market Insights / 07.14

Shapiro – July 2023 Market Insights

SO WHERE IS THAT RECESSION? Many economists have been forecasting a recession for months. The Fed started raising interest rates 16 months ago. Interest rates have now gone from 0 to 5% to 5.25%. During this time, inflation, as measured by CPI, has fallen from near 10% and is now 3%, a two year low. Economists believe there is a lag time for the higher interest rates to start slowing the economy. That time is now, and the economy remains strong. The recession forecasts remind me of an economist, Eliot Janeway, who passed away in 1991, and was known for his numerous gloomy forecasts. He was said to have correctly forecasted 11 of the last 3 recessions.

Bruce's Commentaries- Market Insights / 07.13

Shapiro – Junio de 2023

LO QUE REALMENTE CAUSO LA INFLACION Ben Bernanke, expresidente de la Reserva Federal, y Olivier Blanchard, execonomista jefe del Fondo Monetario Internacional, anunciaron su estudio de dos años sobre la inflación. Bernanke está ahora en la Institución Brookings y Blanchard está en el Instituto Peterson de Economía Internacional. Los dos se encuentran entre los economistas académicos más citados del mundo. Blanchard fue uno de los pocos economistas, junto con Larry Summers, que fueron los primeros en pronosticar la inflación cuando comenzaron los programas de estímulo.

/ 06.16

Shapiro – June 2023 Market Insights

WHAT REALLY CAUSED INFLATION Ben Bernanke, former chair of the Federal Reserve, and Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund announced their 2-year study on inflation. Bernanke is now at the Brookings Institution and Blanchard is at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The two are among the world’s most cited academic economists. Blanchard was one of the few economists, along with Larry Summers who were the first to forecast inflation when the stimulus programs began

/ 05.19

Shapiro – 12 de Mayo de 2023

Mirar hacia adelante. ¡Cuidado! “Tengo un mensaje para quienes observan o están involucrados en el enfrentamiento sobre el aumento del límite de la deuda federal de Los Estados Unidos: tengan mucho miedo. En este punto del ciclo financiero y económico, no lograr llegar a un acuerdo sería particularmente grave”, dijo Bill Dudley, expresidente del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Nueva York de 2009 a 2018.

/ 05.12

Shapiro – May 2023 Market Insights

Lookout Ahead. Look Out! “I have one message for those observing or involved in the standoff over raising the US federal debt limit: Be very afraid. At this point in the financial and economic cycle, failing to reach a deal would be particularly dire,” Bill Dudley, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President from 2009-2018.

/ 04.26

Notas de Mercado – 13 de Abril de 2023

TERMINA LA LOCURA DE MARZO. LOCURA ECONOMICA NO. El adagio es: "La Reserva Federal aprieta hasta que algo se rompe". SVB y otros bancos quebraron. Poco después, el 22 de Marzo, la Fed anunció una subida de tasas de 25 puntos.

/ 04.13

Shapiro Metals – April 2023 Market Insights

MARCH MADNESS ENDS. ECONOMIC MADNESS DOES NOT. The adage is, “The Fed tightens until something breaks.” SVB and other banks broke. Shortly afterward on March 22, the Fed announced a 25-point rate hike. Powell stated, “Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain,”

/ 04.13

Notas de Mercado – 15 de Marzo de 2023

APRENSION ECONOMICA CRECIENTE Requiere un enfoque firme en el futuro LAS PERSPECTIVAS ECONOMICAS SERAN VUCA POR MUCHO TIEMPO Mi acrónimo favorito VUCA (Volatilidad, Incertidumbre, Complejidad y Ambigüedad) resume la economía y es más fácil de explicar que mi pensamiento: "¿Qué diablos está pasando?"

/ 03.15

Shapiro Metals – March 2023 Market Insights

Growing Economic Apprehension This requires a steadfast focus on the future THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WILL BE VUCA FOR A LONG TIME My favorite acronym VUCA — Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity — sums up the economy and is easier to explain than my thinking, “What the hell is happening?”

/ 02.16

Shapiro Metals – February 2023 Market Insights

THE CONUNDRUM & CHANGING THE CALCULUS THE FED's CONUNDRUM How high do interest rates need to go, and how long to cool the economy and inflation while not causing a hard landing? The Fed is trying to navigate these very tricky waters.

/ 01.26

Notas de Mercado 17 de Enero de 2023

LA FED: NO TE VA A GUSTAR LA CURA, TAMPOCO El presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, dijo recientemente en una conferencia de prensa que las condiciones del mercado laboral experimentarán un cierto debilitamiento y “Desearía que hubiera una forma completamente sin dolor de restaurar la estabilidad de precios. Simplemente no hay. Y esto es lo mejor que podemos hacer”.

/ 01.17

Shapiro Metals – January 2023 Market Insights

THE PEOPLE: WE DON’T LIKE INFLATION THE FED: YOU ARE NOT GOING TO LIKE THE CURE, EITHER. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said at a news conference that labor market conditions will experience some softening, and “I wish there were a completely painless way to restore price stability. There isn’t. And this is the best we can do.”

/ 12.14

Shapiro Metals – December Market Insights

A FUNNY THING HAPPENED ON THE WAY TO THE RECESSION During periods of inflation, interest rates typically go up and the economy slows down. People lose their jobs and GDP drops. Everyone calls for tax cuts and stimulus programs. But the government’s reaction to the pandemic was to front-load the stimulus programs...

/ 12.05

Notas de Mercado Noviembre de 2022

EL LARGO Y VENTOSO CAMINO Cuando salíamos de vacaciones cuando éramos niños y nuestros padres conducían, sabíamos a dónde íbamos. Simplemente no sabíamos qué tan lejos estaba el destino y cuánto tiempo tomaría llegar allí, así que seguíamos preguntando: "¿Ya llegamos?"

/ 11.11

Shapiro Metals – November Market Insights

THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR “We have to get supply and demand back into balance. And the way we do that is by slowing the economy.” -Jerome Powell

/ 10.26

Notas de Mercado Octubre de 2022

EL MENSAJE ES CLARO “Tenemos que volver a equilibrar la oferta y la demanda. Y la forma en que lo hacemos es desacelerando la economía”. -Jerónimo Powell

/ 10.18

Shapiro Metals – October Market Insights

THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR “We have to get supply and demand back into balance. And the way we do that is by slowing the economy.” -Jerome Powell

/ 10.12

Notas de Mercado Septiembre de 2022

“Máximo empleo y estabilidad de precios” El "mandato dual" de la Reserva Federal es el máximo empleo y la estabilidad de precios, dijo John Williams, presidente y director ejecutivo del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Nueva York, al The Wall Street Journal durante una sesión de preguntas y respuestas.

News / 10.01

Rolloffs with a Cause: Year-Round Breast Cancer Awareness

Plant Manager Tim Weber’s mother, one of 3.8 million breast cancer survivors in the US, inspired the Shapiro team to take action and create a traveling breast cancer awareness campaign.

/ 09.29

Shapiro Metals – September Market Insights

“Maximum employment and price stability” The Federal Reserve’s “dual mandate” is maximum employment and price stability, John Williams, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told The Wall Street Journal during a Q&A. To lower inflation, he continued, the Fed needs to keep raising interest rates until demand and maximum employment lower to become more in balance with supply.

/ 08.31

Notas de Mercado Augusto 2022

Cuanto más investigo nuestra economía de la era de la pandemia, más me doy cuenta de que las viejas reglas ya no parecen aplicarse. Vivimos tiempos VUCA: volatilidad, incertidumbre, complejidad, ambigüedad. Desarrollar una estrategia para hacer frente a esto requiere mucha paciencia y resistencia

/ 08.15

Shapiro Metals- August Market Insights

The more I research our pandemic-era economics the more I realize that the old rules no longer seem to apply. We are living in VUCA times: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity. Developing a strategy to cope with this takes a lot of patience and resilience.

/ 07.14

Shapiro Metals- July Market Insights

Just two years ago, in Q2 2020, we saw GDP drop 11.1% from Q1. Unemployment reached 14.7% that April. Fifteen million people were unemployed and 30 million were collecting unemployment benefits. Hospitals were filling up with Covid patients, 100,000 had died from Covid, and a vaccine was six months away from being developed.

News / 06.27

What is Greenwashing? And Why it Matters in Manufacturing

ESG reporting is bringing a new level of transparency to the supply chain and more buying power to the hands of consumers and investors…but will it have any impact on greenwashing?

/ 06.22

Notas de Mercado Junio 2022

Todos los días escuchamos malas noticias sobre tragedias violentas, como los horribles y sin sentido asesinatos en Uvalde y Tulsa y la guerra en Ucrania. Es más fácil para mí concentrarme en temas mundanos como la economía, la inflación, la recesión y los cierres en China.

/ 06.16

Shapiro Metals- June Market Insights

We hear bad news about violent tragedies daily, such as the senseless, horrific murders in Uvalde and Tulsa and the war in Ukraine. It’s easier for me to focus on mundane topics like the economy, inflation, recession, and China lockdowns.

/ 05.26

The ESG Era: Smart Manufacturing Trends in 2022

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG)—these aspects of modern corporate responsibility have taken the manufacturing world by storm and are transforming the way we operate and invest in business.

/ 05.25

Traduccion 5 Mayo 2022

Como diría Bob Dylan, no hace falta ser un meteorólogo para saber en qué dirección sopla el viento. Los efectos de la guerra de Putin en Ucrania, los cierres provocados por la pandemia en China y la alta inflación están causando estragos en todo el mundo desde el punto de vista humanitario y económico. En un artículo de opinión en el The Wall Street Journal, Shirley Yu, investigadora principal de la Escuela Kennedy de Harvard, afirma que ninguno de los factores actuales estancará el crecimiento global a largo plazo. Más bien, acelerarán el crecimiento, impulsados por el creciente compromiso mundial de invertir en tecnología e innovación a medida que nos desglobalizamos. Seguro espero eso. Este es un artículo fascinante si tienes la oportunidad de leerlo.

/ 05.13

Shapiro Metals- May Market Insights

As Bob Dylan would say, it doesn’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowin’. The effects of the Putin war in Ukraine, pandemic-prompted lockdowns in China, and high inflation are wreaking havoc throughout the world on a humanitarian and economic basis.

/ 04.20

Shapiro Metals- April Market Insights

The current pressing economic conundrum is how to reduce inflation while avoiding a recession. What a choice. I don’t want inflation or a recession. As the Federal Reserve tightens money and raises the interest rates, the economy slows, unemployment rises, and consumer spending goes down. This is a painful cure for inflation.

/ 03.29

Sustainability in Manufacturing: Trends to Watch

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics are becoming increasingly important to companies everywhere. Investors consider ESG scores as part of their decision-making process, driving stock prices up or down based on these metrics. To deliver good performance in the “environmental” category, manufacturing companies need to adopt a full sustainability strategy that goes beyond recycling.

/ 03.22

Scrap Metal Handling Safety for Manufacturing

We all know that safety is important. We want our team members to arrive home from work after every shift in the same (if not better) shape they were in when they clocked in. In today’s labor market and operational environments, safety is an even hotter priority. With people having to do more with less and the fast pace required to keep up with demand, it can be tempting for plant teams to cut corners—and it hurts the team even more than ever when someone is out due to injury.

/ 03.17

Shapiro Metals – March Market Insights

The war in Ukraine has become a global crisis creating seismic shifts in nations’ economies. Putin murdering innocent Ukrainian people for reasons that only make sense to him has caused a humanitarian nightmare. Europe, the U.S., the U.K., and the rest of world joined together and are standing up to him and will stop him.

/ 02.24

How Manufacturers Can Create a Circular Economy

Carbon neutrality is a goal shared by many companies across a diverse range of sectors. Amazon, Netflix, Meta/Facebook, and Coca-Cola have all announced target dates for when they will achieve it. With an increased focus on ESG metrics, sustainability and financial outcomes have never been more linked.

/ 02.10

Shapiro Metals- February Market Insights

Bad news is everywhere. The issues we face continue to be high Covid levels, labor shortages, volatility, surging inflation, and supply chain and logistics issues. Many families also face the daily stress of educating their children and taking care of family members. The stock market has corrected by 10% and consumer confidence dropped.

/ 01.24

Notas de Mercado Enero 2022

Continuaremos enfrentando muchos problemas para el 2022. Incluso con mas del 70 % de los Estados Unidos ahora vacunados, las muertes por Covid-19 se han duplicado sorprendentemente a mas de 800 mil casos este año, y los casos reportados de Omicron superan los 600 mil por día. Desafortunadamente, parece que las variantes de Covid-19 estarán con nosotros por mucho tiempo. Los problemas de la cadena de suministro tampoco desaparecerán pronto. Las preocupaciones por la inflación y la locura política continúan. La escasez de chips y el encontrar mano de obra calificada y no calificada sigue siendo difícil. La confusión política en Rusia y China también nos afectara.

/ 01.13

Shapiro Metals- January Market Insights

We will continue to face a lot of problems in 2022. Even with over 70% of the US now vaccinated, Covid-19 deaths shockingly have doubled this year to over 800,000, and the reported Omicron cases are over 600,000 per day. Unfortunately, Covid-19 variants look like they will be with us a long time. Supply chain issues aren’t going away anytime soon, either. Inflation worries and political madness continue. Chip shortages and finding skilled and unskilled labor is still difficult. Political turmoil in Russia and China will also affect us.

/ 12.21

Notas de Mercado Diciembre 2021

El presidente de la FED, Jerome Powell, ha llegado a la conclusión de que los problemas que hemos estado luchando durante mas de un año con la cadena de suministro, la escasez de mano de obre, la logística y los altos precios de las materias primas ya no son transitorios. Duh! Los esfuerzos masivos del estimulo del gobierno han impulsado la economía para evitar que se hunda, todavía hay muchos ahorros acumulados para mantener la economía en marcha durante unos años más. También no ha impulsado el cambio pandémico de los servicios a los bienes duraderos.

/ 12.15

Shapiro Metals- December Market Insights

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has come to the conclusion that the issues we have been battling for over a year with supply chain, labor shortages, logistics, and high commodity prices are no longer transitory. Duh! Massive government stimulus efforts have fueled the economy to keep it from sinking, and there is still a lot of accumulated savings to keep the economy going for another few years. We have also been propelled by the pandemic shift from services to durable goods.

/ 12.07

Overview: Holistic Corporate Sustainability Assessments for Manufacturing

Manufacturing companies and facilities are under increasing pressure to improve sustainability and recycling efforts. With sustainable manufacturing becoming that much more prevalent throughout the U.S., facilities need to take immediate measures to implement net-zero and closed-loop production methodologies.

/ 11.18

Notas de Mercado Novimbre del 2021

A partir de 1947 y hasta 1973, la Fuerza Aérea probo aviones nuevos y más rápidos que rompieron la barrera del sonido cuando viajaba a velocidades superiores a las 750 millas por hora. Cuando hacían esto, las ondas de choque de aire crearon fuertes ruidos que sonaban como explosiones a diferentes momentos. Para cuando se escuchaba la explosión, el avión ya se había ido. Fue divertido escucharlo cuando era niño, pero muy molesto para los adultos. El año pasado, Covid-19 desencadeno una serie de eventos disruptivos que comparo con explosiones sónicas.

/ 11.16

Shapiro Metals- November Market Insights

Starting in 1947 and lasting until 1973, the Air Force tested new, faster planes that broke the sound barrier when they traveled at speeds faster than 750 miles per hour. When they did this, air shock waves created loud booms that sounded like explosions at random times. By the time you heard the boom, the plane was long gone. It was fun to hear as a kid but very annoying to adults. Last year, Covid-19 set off a series of disruptive events that I liken to sonic booms.

/ 10.12

Shapiro Metals- October Market Insights

It is not February 2, Groundhog Day, but recently it has felt like it with the same ever-present themes influencing economics month after month. Supply chain issues, unprecedented events, VUCA [volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity], debt ceiling crisis, and my fallback expression: “There's something happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear.” What I thought I knew and what I have learned are not so clear now.

/ 10.06

Notas de Mercado 15 de Septiembre del 2021

Anteriormente escribi sobre uno de mis dichos favoritos que aprendí hace 50 años de un hombre sabio: “No te deprimas demasiado en los malos tiempos. No seas demasiado arrogante en los buenos tiempos. Las cosas cambiaran.” Y aquí vamos de nuevo con este mantra aplicado a la crisis de Covid. Después de esperar meses por una vacuna para protegernos, muchas personas se vacunaron y empezaron a sentirse seguras. Pensamos que lo habíamos “superado”, pero aún no había una tasa de vacunación lo suficientemente alta como para lograr la inmunidad colectiva. Luego, la variante Delta se puso de moda y los casos volvieron a aumentar.

/ 09.23

Shapiro Metals- September Market Insights

VUCA Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity -- keeps happening and businesses keep adapting.

/ 09.01

What is ESG and Why Does it Matter in Manufacturing?

ESG stands for environmental, social, and corporate governance. It is an evaluation of a company’s conscientiousness around issues that impact people and the environment. As businesses and investors become more socially and environmentally conscious, ESG is increasingly coming into focus for growth-minded organizations.

/ 08.23

The Impact of Fluid Recovery

Is the cost of cutting fluid cutting into your profits? Some manufacturers have already found the solution. Fluid recovery services can save five gallons per machine per day, dramatically reducing both waste and costs.

/ 08.12

Shapiro Metals- August Market Insights

Even though GDP in Q2 was up 6.5%, growth continues to be held back by the supply chain. That chain is tethered to price increases, raw material shortages, labor shortages, and a surge in the Delta Covid variant. How long these factors will hold the economy back is an unknown. Despite this, demand in manufacturing and the service sector is very positive.

/ 07.30

Shapiro Metals- July Market Insights

Sin vacuna para el COVID. 15 millones de personas en busca de trabajo. Proyección del PIB por debajo del 5 %. Julio, 2020. Que diferencia hace un año. Demasiadas personas murieron a causa de Covid, pero tenemos una vacuna que funciona.

/ 07.13

Shapiro Metals- July Market Insights

What a difference a year makes. Too many people died from Covid, but we have a vaccine that works. There are still about 9 million jobs unfilled now, but most employers are complaining that they can’t hire people even at much higher wages. GDP is forecast to be up from 7% to 9% this year. But now the big fear factor is what will happen with inflation. We had to make some tradeoffs to get to where we are, but I will take these [tradeoffs] anytime over what we experienced last year.

/ 06.19

Data, Data Everywhere

One of the common themes that Shapiro hears day in and day out is the difficulty of aligning data from multiple sources into a single report. Between the billing cycle variances, the ease of access to the data, and the information itself, reporting your waste stream and recycling totals can feel like a full-time job.

/ 06.18

Notas de Mercado 10 de Junio del 2021

El año pasado, en el segundo trimestre, hubo muchas previsiones de una recuperación de forma de V para el tercer trimestre. Ha tomado 9 mese mas a este bebe llegar, pero ahora estamos en una fuerte recuperación. Esta siendo impulsado por $ 6 billones de dólares en ahorros, de los cuales $ 5 billones fueron financiados por los programas de rescate del gobierno.

/ 06.17

Shapiro Metals- June Market Insights

Last year in Q2 there were many forecasts for a Q3 V-shaped recovery. It has taken an extra 9 months for this baby to arrive, but we are in a strong recovery now. It is being fueled by $6 trillion in savings, of which $5 trillion was funded by the government rescue programs.

/ 05.18

“Does My Business Need an Industrial Sustainability Program?” Why It Pays to Go Green

Sustainability for manufacturing is more than just a feel-good trend. It’s a critical supply chain process that could save you money and future proof your business.

/ 05.16

Notas de Mercado 13 de Mayo del 2021

Como dijo Warren Buffett recientemente, estamos en una economía “al rojo vivo”. En el mes de Abril del 2020, la Ley Cares inyecto 2.2 billones de dólares en la economía para ayudar a todas las personas y empresas que se vieron afectadas por los cierres causados por Covid. Otros $900 mil millones siguieron en Diciembre y mas de $2 billones para este año. Ahora hay un proyecto de ley de $4 billones estimulo de infraestructura sobre la mesa, gran parte del cual se usará en 10 años. No es de extrañar que tengamos una economía al rojo vivo. Y alrededor de $ 2 billones en ahorros que pueden o no usarse en un futuro cercano.

/ 05.16

Shapiro Metals- May Market Insights

As Warren Buffett stated recently, “we are in a red hot economy”. In April 2020, the Cares Act pumped $2.2 trillion into the economy to help all the people and businesses that were hurt by the Covid shut downs. Another $900 billion followed in December plus over $2 trillion this year. Now there is a $4 trillion infrastructure stimulus bill on the table, much of which will be spent over 10 years. No wonder we have a red hot economy. And about $2 trillion in savings may or may not get spent in the near future.

/ 04.19

Shapiro Metals- April Market Insights

Last year, April was the start of an “unprecedented” time with Covid-19 striking our nation, 22 million people losing their jobs, and business plummeting. The Covid-19 death total currently continues to rise but at a much slower rate, millions of people are getting vaccinated daily and 12 million people have returned to work and more will soon. We are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

/ 04.15

Careers in Recycling

“Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.” Confucius

/ 03.15

How Many Trees are in Your Trash?

When you walk past one of the industrial waste collection points at your facility, what do you see? For many manufacturers, it’s merely a pile of stuff. You can easily spot wooden pallets, plastic bottles, non-metal byproducts, and cardboard. Have you ever thought that perhaps the box of trash is part of your company’s legacy?

/ 03.09

Shapiro Metals- March Market Insights

It has been about a year since we started to learn about this new so-called “flu,” Covid-19. Expert opinions about it ranged wildly from it ending by April 2020 to recommendations not to wear a mask to recommendations in favor of wearing a mask and claims that the illness was just a flu. Other healthcare officials made the “unbelievable” forecast that there would be 250,000 deaths by the fall and it would take many years to develop a vaccine. We now know the sad fact that 500,000 Americans, and over 2.5 million people worldwide, have died from Covid-19. Fortunately, vaccines have been developed and are now saving millions of lives, and enough of them should be available by the summer to vaccinate every American who wants a shot. Eventually, we will live more “normal” lives.

/ 02.23

Shapiro Metals – Notas de Mercado 9 de Febrero del 2021

Pense que sabia que los grandes deficits presupuestarios, el gasto gubernamental excesivo, el aumento de la oferta monetaria (M2), el bajo desempleo y las bajas tasas de interes eventualmente causarian una inflacion fuera de control. Pero que se yo? La economia de Trump demostro que todos esos supuestos – mas los recortes de impuestos y una buena economia – no cusaron una inflacion sin control. Junto con la reduccion a las ruegulaciones gubernamentales, la economia crecio bien hasta que la pandemia llego aqui hace unos 11 meses. Trillones de dolares en gastos gubernamentales el año pasado, y los siguentes trillones mas para este año, mantuvieron la economia estable o muy buena para la mayoria de nosotros. La economia es fuerte a pesar de que continuan las altas tasas de desempleo, especialmente para muchos en negocios de recreacion y aquellos con niveles de educacion bajos.

/ 02.11

Shapiro Metals- February Market Insights 2021

I thought I knew that large budget deficits, excessive government spending, increasing the money supply (M2), low unemployment, and low interest rates would eventually cause runaway inflation. But what do I know? The Trump economy proved that all those assumptions -- plus tax cuts and a good economy -- did not cause runaway inflation. Along with reduced government regulations, the economy grew well until the pandemic began here about 11 months ago. Trillions of dollars in government spending last year, and the upcoming trillions more this year, kept the economy stable or very good for most of us. The economy is strong even though high unemployment rates continue, especially for many in leisure businesses and those with lower education levels.

/ 01.22

Shapiro Metals – Notas de Mercado 14 de Enero del 2021

Todos estan felices de ver el final del 2020. Fue un año muy inusual. Antes de que la pandemia golpeara a los Estados Unidos, estabamos viendo el juicio politico de Donal Trump. Se llevaron a cabo las primarias presidenciales en Iowa, que fueron seguidas rapida y dolorosamente por demasiadas primarias mas. Y luego llego el brote de COVID-19 que ha dominado y devastado a demasiadas familias; todavia hay 10 millones de personas sin trabajo. La vida de todos se ha visto gravemente perturbada de muchas formas. Afortunadamente, la vacuna se desarrollo a una velocidad record y esperamos que la vacunacion conduzca a un regreso a tiempos mas normales y saludables. Las elecciones finalmente terminaron y ojala, como empresarios, volvamos a una estrategia estable y politicas que sean beneficiosas.

/ 01.18

Shapiro Metals – January Market Insights 2021

Everyone is happy to see the end of 2020. It was a most unusual year. Before the pandemic hit the US, we were watching the Donald Trump impeachment. The Iowa presidential primaries took place, which were quickly and painfully followed by too many more primaries. And then there was the COVID-19 outbreak that has dominated and devastated far too many families; there are still 10 million people out of work. All of our lives have been severely disrupted in too many ways. Fortunately, the vaccine was developed at record speed and we look forward to the vaccinations leading to a return to more normal and healthier times. The elections are finally over and hopefully, as business people, we will get back to a stable strategy and policies that will be beneficial.

/ 12.17

Shapiro Metals – Conocimiento del Mercado 2020

El año pasado, por estas fechas, todos anticipabamos un buen 2020. Nuestros presupuestos y planes eran optimistas. Y luego llego Covid-19 y todo cambio. A medida que termina el año, todos esperamos y oramos por el fin del virus y que los presupuestos del 2021 esten en el objetivo.

/ 12.10

Shapiro Metals – December Market Insights 2020

Last year at this time we were all anticipating a good 2020. Our budgets and plans were optimistic. And then Covid-19 happened and everything changed. As the year ends, we all hope and pray for the end of the virus and for 2021 budgets to be on target.

/ 11.25

Shapiro Metals – November Market Insights 2020

No siempre puedes conseguir lo que quieres. Pero a veces si lo intentas, puede que encuentres lo que necesitas. Como puede ver en mis citas musicales, por lo general estoy estancado a finales de la decada de 1960. Con toda la tension social y polita de este año, aveces tambien siento que estoy reviviendo los ultimos años de la decada de 1960. Deje que los Rolling Stones nos proporcionen este recordatorio pragmatico y atemporal de que todo saldra como deberia al final de todo.

/ 11.17

Shapiro Metals Market Insight – November 2020

“You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes, you might find you get what you need.” As you can tell from my music quotes, I am usually stuck in the late 1960s. With all the social and political tension this year, sometimes it feels like I am re-living the late 1960s, too. Leave it to the Rolling Stones to provide this timeless, pragmatic reminder that everything will work out as it should in the end.

/ 10.13

Shapiro Metals Market Insight – October 2020

Join me on a mental journey back to October 2016. Polls showed that Hillary Clinton stood an 85% chance of winning the presidency, the Dow Jones average was 18,000, GDP was 1.7%, and the unemployment rate was 4.9%. Imagine if at that time someone asked for odds on a bet that October 2020 would put the Dow at a near record high of 28,000, and the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also would be near record highs.

/ 10.13

Shapiro Metals Market Insights – October 2020

Acompañenme a un viaje de regreso al mes de Octubre de 2016. Las encuestas mostraron que Hillary Clinton tenia un 85 % de posibilidad de ganar la presidencia, el promedio Dow Jones era de 18.000, el PIB ere del 1.7 % y la tasa de desempleo era del 4.9 %. Imaginese si en ese momento alguien pidiera probabilidades en una apuesta de que Octubre 2020 colocaria al Dow en un maximo historico cercano a 28.000, y el NASDAQ y el S&P 500 estarian tambien cerca de maximos historicos.

/ 09.23

Five Ways You Can Improve Your Recycled Material Values

Recycling is more essential than ever due to limited natural resources, the cost and energy required to mine virgin materials, and the demand for recycled materials in the marketplace.

/ 09.21

Shapiro Metals Market Insights – September 2020

This acronym certainly sums up the year better than seen. We all continue to deal with “VUCA” issues and are constantly adjusting and adapting our business models.

/ 08.26

We’re Ready When You’re Ready: Connecting in the New Normal

One of the things our team enjoys the most is visiting with manufacturers to help them solve problems and improve their sustainability programs

/ 08.14

Shapiro Metals Market Insights – August 2020

Many of us are having a similar conversation about wearing a mask as a health precaution during the pandemic. History shows that there is always a tipping point when most people decide something contentious is the smart thing to do. Wearing seat belts is one example. It wasn’t until the 1980s and ‘90s that states began adopting seatbelt laws, and then public sentiment shifted from the devices being optional and uncomfortable to being a necessity.

/ 07.16

Shapiro Metals Market Insights – July 2020

This brilliant general and president developed a decision-making matrix. His strategy and the matrix helped us to achieve victory in WWII. The matrix is even more important and effective today with the velocity of change in our society.

/ 06.15

Shapiro Metals Owner Celebrates 50 Years in Recycling—And Ushers In New Era of Leadership

Shapiro Metals, a St. Louis-based nationwide provider of scrap metal recycling services and full-scale sustainability programs to manufacturers across the country, announced that Bob Alvarez has been elevated to company President and COO.

/ 06.12

Shapiro Metals Market Insight – June 2020

Buffalo Springfield wrote these words to the song “For What It’s Worth” in 1966, yet the words still hold true today, more than 50 years later. Some of the issues we now face are the pandemic, social unrest, unemployment, economic recovery, education, trade conflicts, and health issues, just to name a few. We get a non-stop barrage of daily news about all of these subjects. It isn’t exactly clear, and no one really knows what is going to happen.

/ 06.11

Creating a Safer Tomorrow

Shapiro Metals recently completed its first ever Plant Safety Stand Down project for all ten of its plants, where each plant closed operations for a day to provide safety education and training to the entire team.

/ 06.11

Where Does Manufacturing Waste Go?

Larger manufacturing operations can generate millions of pounds of waste every month! It’s critical that behind the scenes in every plant, a well-organized and cost-efficient process is in place to handle and remove a company’s waste.

/ 05.18

Shapiro Metals Market Insight – May 2020

The health crisis continues unabatedly. Last month at this time, I reported 24,000 deaths in the U.S. We are now over 84,000, and worldwide the number is over 294,000. The pain and sadness that afflicts us from these losses is relentless. This disease will be with us for a long time, and it takes both an emotional and financial toll.

/ 04.22

Honoring Shapiro’s Heroes Everywhere

Each November, it’s a tradition at Shapiro that we take time to honor veterans and give special recognition to our employees who have served in the military—our “Shapiro’s Heroes.”

/ 04.21

Scrap Metal Recycling Fun Facts for Earth Day

On this unique Earth Day in 2020, we’d like to be gathering together to plant trees or pick up litter in our local parks, but the world had other plans. However, scrap metal recycling is an essential business, so our team members in our plants are hard at work doing what they do every day to keep critical manufacturing up and running!

/ 04.15

Shapiro Metals Market Insight – April 2020

We are faced with an unprecedented health crisis that is dominating our lives. When this began in the U.S. over a month ago, those who attempted to warn us about what could happen were called “chicken little.” Few people really understood what would happen. But now everyone understands we are being attacked by a virus that is difficult to defend ourselves against. The infection rate and the death rate have been going up exponentially, and tragically, over 24,000 individuals have died in the U.S. alone.

/ 03.24

COVID-19 Status at Shapiro Metals

Because of the role we play in keeping businesses operating, Shapiro Metals has been deemed an essential business operation per U.S. Government guidelines.

/ 03.10

Health Crisis: Coronavirus is now a Pandemic

The U.S. is now starting to confront a serious health crisis: coronavirus. China has been fighting this since December and appears to be bringing it under control. There are fewer reports of new coronavirus cases and deaths there. They fought this by shutting down large portions of the country with draconian measures. Many cities were quarantined and transportation was shut down. The U.S. is just starting to fight the virus and has many issues to address, but the health issues come first.

/ 02.10

Good News and Black Swans

USMCA and Phase 1 of the tariffs have passed, which should lead to reduced trade conflicts and tariffs. China has agreed to buy $200 billion in products from the U.S. However, $360 billion in tariffs still exist, which amounts to about a 15% tariff on many Chinese imports.

/ 01.10

I Think I Know But I Don’t. [Acronym: ITIKBID]

I use this saying a lot in my life, and it applies to this report. The macro outlook continues to be favorable. GDP, unemployment, housing, consumer spending, and consumer confidence all are positive. Car sales have been at 17 million for five years, the stock market is strong, and the Fed sees little risk of a recession. Plus, 57% of small businesses are experiencing revenue growth. The NFIB reports that current orders are weak, but future orders look strong.

/ 12.10

Favorable Outlook with Contradictions

Our economy is in its 11th year of expansion. Over 266,000 jobs were created last month, putting unemployment at 3.5%, a 50-year low. However, the number of jobs created in the three years that Trump has been in office is 13% lower -- 1 million less – than the last three years that Obama was in office. Interest rates are extremely low, as is inflation. If any economist had forecast the current economic scenario prior to 2009, they would have been laughed at, ridiculed and deemed an idiot. Well, here we are.

/ 11.20

Market Insights – November 2019

The economy looks better this month than it did last month. The six-week GM strike ended and did not have a big impact on the overall economy. Job growth continues to be good, except for manufacturing.

/ 11.18

Shapiro Metals Recognized With Community Impact Award for Program Honoring Veterans

The Missouri Association of Manufacturers (MAM) held its annual Made in Missouri Leadership Awards (MMLAs) on September 24 in Independence, Missouri.

/ 08.26

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – August 2019

I am focusing on the trade war because of the topic’s importance to manufacturing.

/ 07.26

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – July 2019

I might have to change the name of the Metals Commentary to the Trade Wars Commentary. In June, 600 large corporations, including Walmart, Costco, Target and Gap, and numerous trade associations sent a letter to President Trump requesting the removal of US tariffs on Chinese-produced goods. The group prepared an analysis that showed the trade wars are hurting the economy and would reduce the GDP, lead to a loss of more than 2 million jobs and cost the average American family $2,300 per year.

/ 06.26

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – June 2019

There is a considerable amount of negative economic news out there right now. It is not negative at the same level as the Great Recession, just a softer tone to manufacturing and business. I concentrate on the indicators that most affect manufacturing.

/ 05.29

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – May 2019

Political turmoil and tariff chaos continue to make headlines and cause uncertainty.

/ 04.15

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – April 2019

My brother is 4 years older than I am. When we were little and had a fight, I would say, “I don’t like you, but I love you.” I feel the same way about the economy as it continues to chug along since the Great Recession. New orders of nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, had their biggest gain since last July and the total industry capacity utilization rate is the highest in 2 years. The ISM is back up after 2 down months. Consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan rose 4 points last month. Job growth is good and inflation is in check. However, autos, housing and capital equipment are a bit slower.

/ 03.13

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – March 2019

There is an old Chinese proverb that states, “You should live in interesting times.” Actually, it is often said as a curse. Right now, we are certainly living in interesting times. Headline news includes a record $890 billion trade deficit for 2018, which is a 10-year record. The budget deficit is estimated at $1 trillion, and the GDP, which was close to 2.9% growth last year, is forecast to be about 1.5% for this year. Global GDP is still forecast at a very decent 3.0% to 3.5% growth rate, but it is trending down.

/ 02.15

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – February 2019

The old adage in elections and politics is: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Today the adage is: “Look at the economy and don’t listen to politics.” Granted, it is hard not to listen to the tweets and barrage of talk these days, but this is a metal commentary.

/ 01.17

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – January 2019

Even though I know forecasting the future is absurd, it still enables our company to come up with our business and metal assumptions. Our team then develops a strategy and a budget for the year, which is the true benefit of analyzing the forecasts.

/ 12.12

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – December 2018

The US, Canada and Mexico signed trade agreements although there are still many issues to be resolved. Leaders of the G20 met, and the US and China might have agreed to lessening some tariffs implemented during their trade war. President Trump gave the Chinese government 90 days to act or he would announce more tariffs. We all have a vested interest in ending the trade war.

/ 10.12

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – October 2018

There is still a lot of good economic news, and yet a lot of uncertainty. The economy is strong, with unemployment at its lowest in 50 years and consumer confidence very strong.

/ 09.12

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – September 2018

Economic news continues to be generally positive, with only housing and auto sales showing weakness. Auto sales dipped to 16.7 million in August, the lowest since August 2017, signaling that the expected second-half of the year slowdown is underway.

/ 08.10

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – August 2018

GDP for Q2 grew 4.1%, which is the best pace in nearly four years. Some of the increase was due to higher soybean exports to China to avoid the new Chinese soybean tariffs. Consumer spending was also the strongest in over three years. Most manufacturing indicators continue to be strong, although cars and housing are down slightly. The PMI also dropped to 58.2 from 60.2, but it is still a strong, positive number.

/ 07.12

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – July 2018

We know that the economy continues to be strong, as most of the key indicators I report on are good. There are only a few weak spots in manufacturing. What we don’t know is what effect the current Section 232 tariffs and other tariff policies will have in the second half of the year and beyond.

/ 06.11

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – June 2018

Talk of Section 232 continues to dominate the metals industry. Much has changed, but the strategy is still very unclear. Yes, we do have some legitimate trade issues that need to be changed, but very little strategy is apparent in the Section 232 negotiations.

/ 05.08

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – May 2018

Business decisions are based on strategy, planning, and an understanding that disruptions and uncertainty will occur and we will need to react to and adapt to them. A number of factors that have occurred in the last 30 days have brought such disruption and uncertainty.

/ 04.05

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – April 2018

Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. We will be talking about them for a while. In March, President Trump announced Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and made statements that no country would be exempt. In the following weeks, most of our allies received temporary exemptions.

/ 03.08

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – March 2018

President Trump has announced his intent to impose Section 232 tariffs: a sweeping 25% tariff on all imported steel and a 10% tariff on all prime and wrought aluminum imported from any country. Here are the pertinent facts as I see them: We import most of our steel from Canada, South Korea, and the EU, and 2% comes from China. Remember that 90% of our aluminum comes from Canada. The US cannot produce enough aluminum at any time to compete with that.

/ 02.07

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – February 2018

The trends and metrics for measuring the economy continue to be positive. Unemployment is very low at just over 4%. Industrial production, capital goods, lead indicators, ISM, PMI, car sales, and oil rig counts are either near records or not too far from them. GDP for Q4 came in a little soft, up 2.6%. GDP for 2017 as a whole was up 2.3%, compared with1.5% growth in 2016.

/ 01.10

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – January 2018

/ 12.09

Bruce’s Metal Market Commentary – December 2017

What a dramatic end to the year. The tax reduction plan has passed through Congress and now will go to committee. I was hoping that Congress would have passed the infrastructure spending bill first. This would have helped the economy and many people in the metals business.

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